450
FXUS65 KVEF 250501
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1001 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to continue into
  this evening before diminishing. More isolated activity is
  expected over mainly Western Arizona Thursday before moving east.

* Dry and windy conditions expected Friday through Saturday Night,
  leading to increased fire danger.

* Following unseasonably mild temperatures, a gradual warmup is
  expected from the middle of next week through the July 4th
  weekend with Heat Risk increasing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak impulse coupled with abundant moisture will continue to
foster scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Given
how moist the low levels are, the fire risk appears somewhat
tempered. However, recent hi-res guidance does show isolated
thunderstorm activity may develop across parts of Lincoln County
into southwest Utah. This area has not moistened quite as much as
areas to the south, so some potential for dry thunder will remain
into the evening. This is also where two large fires are already
ongoing with dry fuels, so the remains some risk of new fire
starts if any storms manage to develop. Activity should gradually
shift to the east this evening into tonight and diminish with loss
of daytime heating. Isolated showers and storms can be expected
again on Thursday, mainly over Mohave county, before activity
moves to the east. Brief heavy downpours, lightning and gusty
winds will be the main concerns with any stronger storm.

Attention will then turn to a potent late season upper trough.
Both EC and GFS ensembles are in good agreement deepening this
feature across the PacNW, with a gradual shift southward toward
the Great Basin late in the week. This will bring a period of
breezy to windy conditions Friday into Saturday night.
Probabilities for 35-40+ mph winds will range from 60-90+ percent,
particularly from the Mojave Desert northward to the Vegas Valley
and Mohave County. This, coupled with afternoon humidity in the
5-15 percent range will lead to dangerous fire weather conditions,
particularly for fires in progress, which are likely to spread if
not contained. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect with a
strong likelihood that Red Flag Warnings will be needed. This
will be evaluated over the next 12-24 hours for potential upgrade.

Cooler temperatures will move into the Desert Southwest with this
upper trough, bringing temperatures down some 10-15 degrees below
normal. Highs will likely fall to below 100 degrees for many
areas with lows in the 60s and 70s through the weekend.
Thereafter, ensembles are in generally good agreement with a more
summer-like pattern developing ahead of the July 4th holiday
weekend. Temperatures will rise back to near or above normal as
early as Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds
will remain light and variable through Thursday morning when winds
will pick up from the south. Once winds swing around to the south
tomorrow morning, winds will favor a southerly- to-southwesterly
direction through the rest of the TAF period. Winds will increase
throughout the afternoon with 10 to 15 knot sustained winds with
15 to 25 knot gusts. Winds will remain elevated into the evening
hours with wind gusts dropping off overnight. VFR conditions will
persist through the TAF period. Temperatures on Thursday are
expected to peak around 105F late in the afternoon, with readings
remaining above 100F between 19Z and 04Z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds across the area
will remain light, favoring typical diurnal directional trends
through late morning/early afternoon on Thursday when southerly
winds will pick up across the region with 15 to 25 knot wind
gusts. The exception will be the western Mojave Desert where winds
will favor a westerly direction through the TAF period with 25 to
35 knot wind gusts tomorrow. Skies will remain clear-to- mostly
clear with VFR conditions persisting through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Conditions will become more favorable for the
spread of wildfires as we close out the week. As a strong storm
system develops over the Western U.S., breezy south to southwest
winds will develop along with low afternoon humidities. Wind gusts
of 40 to 55 mph can be expected, perhaps even slightly stronger
over the higher terrain Friday through Saturday night. Humidities
in the single digits and low teens coupled with these windy
conditions will favor increase fire danger. This will be the case
both for any new fires and for the ongoing Kane Springs and
Grapevine fires across Lincoln County. A Fire Weather Watch
remains in effect, portions of which will likely be upgraded to
Red Flag Warning in future forecasts.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Austin
AVIATION...Stessman

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office