714
FXUS65 KVEF 222141
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
141 PM PST Mon Dec 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread rainfall with isolated flash flooding, snow at the high
  elevations, and gusty winds will impact Christmas travel.

* Heavy mountain snow expected in the Sierra and White Mountains
  amounting to several feet of new accumulation in the highest
  elevations by the end of the week.
&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Monday. Midday satellite loop showed lots
of cirrostratus streaming overhead in southwesterly flow aloft.
Surface obs show locally gusty south to southeast winds, with
temperatures several degrees warmer than yesterday where the gusty
winds have surfaced.

Water vapor loop showed all the ingredients coming together for the
well-advertised wet period on the way. To the west of the Baja
Peninsula, moisture was streaming northward with a connection all
the way to the intertropical convergence zone. Slightly farther
north, the weakening ongoing atmospheric river was noted from about
26N 134W through northern California. Even farther north, a complex
cold low pressure system with multiple centers of circulation
dominated the Gulf of Alaska and coast of British Columbia. A jet
streak zipping down the back side of this low will force it to dig
farther south, so by Tuesday night we expect to see full-latitude
troughing along 130W with a fire hose of moisture streaming north
into California on its front side. This moisture will advect into
our area Christmas Eve day, with precipitable water values expected
to be over 300 percent of normal and threatening the all time record
for December. The deep moisture plus the forcing from the incoming
trough plus orographics plus very high snow levels (8000 to 10,000
feet on Christmas Eve day) will lead to very high rainfall totals on
the mountains, especially south-facing slopes of the Springs, where
four inches could fall. In most desert areas, rain totals somewhere
in the neighborhood of an inch will be the most likely outcome, with
variance possible on both the higher and lower sides. All of this
supports the ongoing Flood Watch. The unseasonably warm nature of
the pre-frontal air mass will limit accumulating snow to the highest
elevations. The crest of the Sierra will likely see multiple feet,
with a sharp cutoff near the resort level as the precip changes over
to rain. Thus, the ongoing Winter Storm Watch is justified, as a 500
foot change in snow levels could make the difference between
multiple feet of snow and multiple inches of rain at Aspendell on
Christmas Eve day. As cooler air arrives Christmas Eve night, snow
levels will fall below resort level, but the heaviest precip could
already be moving off to the east at that time. On Christmas Day,
the lower snow levels should reach the Spring Mountains, giving the
possibility of a white Christmas at Mount Charleston.

Beyond Christmas, the forecast becomes extremely uncertain. Ensemble
clusters have an abnormally high amount of spread, depicting
solutions ranging from significant snow ending areawide after
Saturday to at least some accumulating snow persisting through
Monday. In short, any details from Friday onward will have to be
ironed out in future forecasts.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...Broken to overcast skies expected through the period
with wind speeds generally 10 knots or less. Winds to eventually
shift from northwest to north/northeast through the afternoon,
then become west/northwest again this evening before becoming
variable overnight.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Broken to overcast
skies to persist through the period. Winds to generally remain
10 knots or less outside of KBIH, where winds may gust 15-25
knots at times. There`s also a low potential for a few showers
around KBIH toward the end of the TAF period, but will refrain
from introducing in the current TAF issuance.


&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record Monday.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX            MON, DEC 22
               Record(Yr)

Las Vegas      75(2014)
Bishop         74(2014)
Needles        74(2020)*
Daggett        78(1955)
Kingman        72(1906)*
Desert Rock    70(2014)*
Death Valley   82(1914)

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN       MON, DEC 22
               Record(Yr)

Las Vegas      50(2024)*
Bishop         39(2014)
Needles        60(1904)
Daggett        59(1955)
Kingman        46(2005)*
Desert Rock    44(1994)*
Death Valley   70(1914)
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Morgan
AVIATION...Austin
CLIMATE...Outler

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office